Resources for Writers
2004 Outlook for Writers: New Research from Agents and Editors
Over 100 editors and literary agents participated in a survey conducted in mid 2004 by Brian Hill and Dee Power. Most of the participating editors were from major publishing houses; however editors from small and university presses participated as well. The agents completing the survey were from well known agencies as well as boutique agencies.
This report includes:
- Can Writers Expect Changes on the Horizon for the Publishing Industry?
- From the Literary Agent's Point of View
- From the Editors
Can Writers Expect Changes on the Horizon for the Publishing Industry?
The following questions were posed to determine what the current and future environment is for new authors trying to become published, and what does that tell us about the state of the publishing industry?
Survey participants were asked:
Question 1: Is the publishing industry environment more or less favorable for new (unpublished) writers than 12 months ago? Please rate your response from 1 – much less favorable to 5 – much more favorable.
Question 2: In the next 12 to 24 months do you see the publishing industry becoming more or less favorable for new (unpublished) writers? Please rate your response from 1 – much less favorable to 5 – much more favorable. The average responses were:
| Now versus 12 Months Ago | The Next 12 to 24 Months | |
| Agents | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Editors | 2.8 | 2.8 |
Neither agents nor editors see a great deal of change on the horizon; both groups were mildly negative about the next 12 to 24 months. Agents had a somewhat dimmer view of the current environment compared to 12 months ago, but also see a slight improvement for the future.
From the Literary AGENTS' Point of View
Agents are often thought of as the people who make “deals” happen on behalf of their clients. That of course is their objective. But before the negotiations can begin with a publisher, the agent has to decide which clients to represent out of the hundreds or thousands of authors who contact them every year. Thus, they perform an important screening function for the publishing industry, keeping editors from being even more inundated with manuscripts and proposals to read than they already are. And, they are also the first ones to read the rejection letters from editors. Imagine opening your mail each day and seeing all those polite “no thank-you” letters—and a number several times that much of correspondence from new, hopeful writers clamoring for representation.
The most common reasons behind their outlook for the next two years in order of frequency of mention were:
- Industry Consolidation, Changes (Or lack thereof) Within the Publishing Industry Itself
- Changes in Book Retailing
- Publishers are Becoming More Risk Averse
- The Impact of the National Economy
From the EDITORS' Point of View
The next generation of bestselling authors begins with those authors struggling to get their first book published. As part of our Survey editors were asked: Is it becoming easier or more difficult for “new” authors to become successful, compared to established authors? Over 50 editors replied and their comments fell into several categories or order of frequency of mention:
- Past Track Record of Success Is Becoming More Important to Editors
- The Fiction Market Has Always Been Hard
- Impact of Retailers
- Proliferation of Titles, Manuscripts, Authors
- The National Economy
Comments from Literary Agents
When asked why they rated the publishing environment the way they did literary agents had strong opinions and frequently piquant comments. The number to the left of each response indicated the agent's numerical rating for Question 2, the lower the number the more pessimistic the rating. Not all comments are included.
Industry Consolidation, Changes (Or lack thereof) Within the Publishing Industry Itself
1 “Publishers don't know how to sell books. They've continued to lose money. Now they think the only way to be sure to sell books is by buying names that are known. This is not the correct way to think however. And perhaps within the next five years they will get it.”
1 “Editors no longer rely on their instincts and passions as selection criteria; instead they go by such formulas as, Bad Numbers, Author has no Platform etc.”
2 “Continuing consolidation and conglomeration of industry.”
2 “The industry gets more competitive and less favorable to new writers with each passing week...”
2 “For nonfiction works, in particular, publishers need credentialed writers, which leaves out the many individuals who have great ideas but nothing to back it up. With fiction, they are more likely to take a chance on an unpublished writer IF it is in an area (genre) they are seeking at the time and the writing is passable enough. So, rather than rate the question as a ‘1,' which is where I feel publishing is now, I am rating it ‘2' with a glimmer of hope that editors will see the need to diversify.”
3 “The market doesn't really change that quickly. It has ALWAYS been hard for the new author to break in.”
Changes in Book Retailing
1 “Because of the pressure of the chain buyers, publishers are increasingly locked into publishing only the brand new authors with no record, and bestselling authors.”
2. “Because as long as the retail market continues to consolidate in the hands of fewer and fewer retailers, the entire industry becomes dependent on the taste of a small handful of 'buyers' who choose which books get shelf space.”
Publishers are Becoming More Risk Averse
2 “It just seems like it's getting harder and harder to get people to take a chance on an unknown.”
2 “Editors are buying fewer books; they are reluctant to take chances.”
3 “It's just a tough market now; it's always a tough market and it always seems to be getting just a bit tougher. Everyone wants a sure thing.”
3 “What does keep projects from being bought is the fact that lists are shrinking, and in a marketplace in which it's terribly hard to win anyone's attention – from buyers all the way to customers – everyone up the editorial chain is anxious about making the wrong bet … more often than not, ‘No' is a safe answer.”
4 “Financial pressures on publishers has required them to limit risk.”
The Impact of the National Economy
3 “I don't see the economy improving in any significant way. When people don't have a lot of discretionary income, the publishing industry suffers.”
3 “New writers have many hurdles to overcome at the best of times but the slow economy has really hurt first time authors' chances. With the economy picking up, publishers may be more willing to take a chance on someone without a proven track record but it's hard to determine whether bookstores will support those moves.”
3 “The industry is coming out of recession, but literary publishing looks to be at best fairly static.”
4 “Publishing is an increasingly tough biz in tough times -- fewer people read.”
Additional Interesting Comments
2 “Number of rejection letters publishers have sent for well-written, well-plotted novels by new authors that would have sold if given the chance.”
3 “Because I don't agree that the publishing industry is either for or against unpublished writers. They are FOR unpublished writers who have a brilliant first novel to offer or a nonfiction platform. They are AGAINST unpublished writers who are bad writers or (in the case of nonfiction, are not credentialed in their field.”
3 “The Industry is not a monolithic thing. Some genres (nonfiction especially, which more and more requires the author to have a major platform for promotion and media attention) will continue to become more difficult; some genres (upmarket fiction) exalt first-time writers ("the first novel" for literary fiction represents a unique marketing opportunity for the publisher; it's the second and third novels that tend to be far more difficult to publish well if the first novel doesn't take off).”
3 “The industry is far more interested in new authors than new authors would actually believe. It's just harder for them to get in the door because there are so many people already being published. Frankly it's much harder being a 2nd-time author than a first timer.”
3 “Publishers are always looking for new talent.”
3 “Some trends favor new writers and new voices, however the money is often discouragingly small, so there is not the sense of a career being launched.”
3 “Unpublished writers don't have sales track records that can hamper new writers once they are published. Poor sales can hamper a writer like Marley's sins on the chain he dragged behind him making a new sale of even a good book project more difficult.”
Editor Comments
The editors' comments are below in quotes. Not every comment is included.
Past Track Record of Success Is Becoming More Important to Editors
“It is a combination of factors but as long as "returns" are the normal way of doing business in this industry none of us can afford to work with authors who don't have a track record or who don't sell a lot of books themselves. Usually first time authors are very naive about this reality. And trying to educate them about publishing is time consuming and difficult. The truth is that to get published today you need to know a lot about this industry and there are few authors who understand how important that is or how to do it.”
“Everyone seems to want a sure thing these days. Of course there are always exceptions, but it seems like big publishers wait for new writers to succeed in self-publishing or with a small press before they will risk taking them on.”
“The publishing industry seems to be working like a department store: follow the trends, go with designer labels that sold well last year.”
The Fiction Market Has Always Been Hard
“I don't think there's any question that new fiction is always a hard sell, and it does seem to be even harder lately.”
“It's always been tough for new authors to break in, but every editor wants to find the ‘Next big thing.'"
Impact of Retailers
“With the poor economy and the strong influence of the Big Box retailers on sales, the focus will continue to be on authors with a proven track record.”
“The retail outlets are overwhelmed with new books, which causes them to emphasize new releases from established brands. In addition, mass market retailers tend to "cherry pick" the established brands and not even stock new authors. This leads publishers to focus on established author brands and established series and to sign fewer unproven authors.”
“Intense pressure to cut costs up and down the line. Authors are critical to the publishing process, but sales for most authors are not high enough to command the advances and royalty rates agents prefer.”
Proliferation of Titles, Manuscripts, Authors
“There are too many books being published. The longer this situation goes on, the less chance new authors have of making an impact.”
“Simple numbers. More and more manuscripts and proposals submitted, not matched by increasing numbers of book readers/buyers.”
The National Economy
“We always need new authors, but we need a balance of new authors and familiar names. I don't anticipate any major changes in the publishing industry in the next year. I believe the industry is and will remain in recovery from the poor economy.”
“More publishers will be willing to take a chance as the economy improves.”
Opportunities For New Authors are Good
“On one hand, finding a major publisher is harder than ever before. The major houses keep shrinking and shrinking. But on the other, small regional publishers are popping up like mushrooms and thriving. And there are lots of self-published authors who are thriving.”
“Consolidation opens other avenues; the Internet will continue to emerge as a strong marketing tool.”
“Because we as an industry have always been willing to take chances on new unpublished writers, and will continue to do so.”
“Our industry is constantly in search of the sure thing, and many believe that comes primarily through authors with a history of success. However, we're also always seeking fresh voices, writers who wake us up to something new or who present something old in a way that speaks to our current cultural distinctives. I believe the opportunities are present for authors who truly have what it takes to succeed, but writers who aren't willing to work at their craft— or who simply lack some elusive element of success—will continue to believe the industry is biased against newcomers.”
“The status quo often remains just that when in the evolutionary process of the business you naturally bear witness to previously published writers dying off (sales-wise or otherwise), which in turn affords new room for unpublished writers. I don't think publishers today are any less favorable toward new writers than they were five or even ten years ago.”
“My sense is that companies out there are working harder to turn a profit and increase their margins, and they're looking for a boost wherever they can find it. Non-published authors will do more for less than those who are previously published. Thus, it makes sense to work with unpublished authors, particularly individuals who have achieved fame outside the publishing world.”
“We regularly hire writers without book credits, providing they have the expertise we're looking for. We will consider contracting with writers for doing a first book, providing the idea is right--- but they seldom are.”
It's The Book That Matters
“I don't think this will change -- it's less about the published/unpublished status, and more about relevance of subject and quality of writing.”
“While it's never easy to get a first book published, I don't feel that the coming 2 years will prove any easier or more difficult--the old adage that no great book goes unpublished still strikes me as true.”
“Publishing is a fickle business, if you have a great book and you are an unknown you will get published. I don't think new authors are necessarily discriminated against if they have a great book. Everyone is looking for the next big seller. The difficulty lies in getting someone to look at an unknown author's work.”
“Our company is very open to new writers, always have been. We don't deal in name authors, so content, rather than previous sales is most important to us.”
“I've been seeing some really great proposals from first time authors in the last several months and even when we can't publish them here, they're selling elsewhere, and they're selling fast. Changing genres, the economy...these are all factors. It's a good time for first time authors with good ideas to get out there.”
The Real Problem is that Second Book…or the Third
“It's easier to launch a new author than it is to overcome the hurdles when you're publishing an author who's down trending or whose sales have plateaued. Of course, ‘It's easier' doesn't mean ‘It's easy.' Because it's not. Launching a new author is difficult.”
“That doesn't mean no great book struggles to get published— many do, of course--but as editors it's our primary assignment and desire to find that exciting new writer. A trickier question might address the problems of getting a SECOND book published, which I do think is getting harder and harder.”
Excerpted with permission from “The Making of a Bestseller: Success Stories From Authors and the Editors, Agents and Booksellers
Behind Them” by Brian Hill and Dee Power
Dearborn Trade, March 2005, ISBN 0793193087
People are fascinated by bestselling authors who have become every bit as much celebrities as rock musicians or film stars. Through some mysterious process, these individuals take blank pages and turn them into gold—many of them over and over again. For authors, earning a spot on the bestseller list is the grand, often elusive prize at the end of many years of work. But what makes a bestseller happen?
Brian Hill and Dee Power interviewed over 50 successful authors, publishers, editors, agents, book reviewers, and other experts to find the answer. “The Making of a Bestseller: Success Stories from Authors and the Editors, Agents, and Booksellers Behind Them” presents a comprehensive look at the publishing process from start to finish.
About Brian Hill and Dee Power
Brian Hill and Dee Power are the founders of Profit Dynamics Inc., a research and consulting firm. They were inspired by their own publishing experiences to research and write “The Making of a Bestseller.” They have also written “Attracting Capital From Angels,” and “Inside Secrets To Venture Capital.” Several of their screenplays are currently under consideration in Hollywood. They have just finished writing “Inside The Crescent Moon,”a contemporary adventure that intertwines the stories of an 18th century female pirate with a modern day treasure hunt, and are looking for agency representation for that title as well as future nonfiction works.
You can reach Brian and Dee through their website, http://www.BrianHillAndDeePower.com or email mailto:Dee@BrianHillAndDeePower.com
